Chesapeake, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

202
FXUS61 KAKQ 061725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
125 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

No significant changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable temperatures and dry through Saturday.

2) Moisture potentially returns late this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and dry through Saturday.

An upper level trough is located over the Northeast and
Atlantic Canada early this morning. At the surface, ~1024mb high
pressure is centered over the eastern Great Lakes, and is
building SE toward the Mid-Atlantic in the wake of a dry cold
front sliding N-S along the coast. Clear early this morning
aside from some patchy mid level clouds in vicinity of the VA/NC
border. Temperatures have cooled into the upper 40s to lower
50s across the northern tier of the area, and have actually
risen into the upper 50s/lower 60s over southern VA/NE NC due to
mixing with the frontal passage. Overall, temperatures in this
area should cool several degrees through sunrise in the wake of
the front while dropping a few degrees into the mid to upper 40s
across the northern tier of the area.

High temperatures today will be slightly below average and
generally ranging from the the mid 60s N to lower 70s S despite
full (or nearly full) sunshine. Tonight will be the coolest of
the week (and of the season so far) with widespread lows in the
lower to mid 40s, with 50s at the immediate coast as high
pressure settles over the region. Some upper 30s are possible in
rural and typically cooler locations in the Piedmont. High
pressure shifts offshore Wednesday with high temperatures
moderating back to near average, which are in the lower to mid
70s. The high shifts farther offshore Thursday with high
temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s (potentially
mid 80s well inland) ahead of another dry cold front. This cold
front crosses the region Thursday night with temperatures
trending down to near seasonal averages Friday and Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture potentially returns late this weekend
into early next week.

By late this weekend into early next week, there is a potential
that moisture gets pulled northward from the western Gulf
(associated with a probable tropical cyclone) and then pushed
eastward across the region ahead of a trough over the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Confidence remains low with regard to
details as a tropical depression has yet to form. However, most
global models and ensemble systems depict the TC remnants
merging with the upper trough in vicinity of the Mid-South with
accumulating QPF over the local area later Sunday/Monday
timeframe. As would be expected, there is considerable spread
between the 10th and 90th percentile QPF in the 00z/06 ensemble
guidance (EPS/GEFS/GEPS). Temperatures should remain near
average late this weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/06 TAF period. High pressure
remains over the area allowing for clear skies. Generally light
N to NE flow continues this afternoon, before becoming calm to
very light tonight. Winds will shift out of the S to SE
Wednesday morning and increase to ~5-8 kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue through much of the week. The next
chance for sub-VFR conditions does not arrive until late
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Chesapeake Bay,
  lower James River, and coastal waters south of Cape Charles
  until 10 AM.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail for the remainder of the week with
  high pressure in control.

Northerly winds have been gradually increasing as cold
advection overspreads the waters this morning, though this has
occurred a bit slower than initially forecast. Still expect a
~6-8 hr period of gusts to 20-25 kt over the Chesapeake Bay,
lower James River, and ocean through late morning and Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect (S of Cape Charles on the
ocean for seas). While seas are likely to increase, it now seems
unlikely that 5 ft seas will occur S of Cape Charles and will
instead peak around 4 ft. However, will keep ongoing headlines
in effect and evaluate observational trends over the next few
hours. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay average 2-3 ft through this
morning.

Winds quickly decrease this afternoon, but remain out of the
north, as high pressure builds into the region from the NW. Sub-
SCA winds shift to the south Wednesday and then southwest
Thursday. A dry cold front passage occurs overnight Thursday and
shifts the winds back to the N for Friday. Relatively limited
cold advection still look to preclude widespread SCA-level
winds, but a short/marginal period of SCAs can`t be ruled out
before sunrise Friday. Seas decrease to 2-3 ft this afternoon
and then hover around 2 ft for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/RHR
AVIATION...AJZ/KMC
MARINE...SW